An innovative methodology for assessing the safety of logistics infrastructure considering carrying capacity and catastrophe property of accidents

Maintaining safety is a fundamental goal in logistics infrastructure management. Current research on logistics infrastructure safety constructed assessment models without accounting for the catastrophe property of accidents. This research aims at developing an innovative methodology for assessing the safety of logistics infrastructure, which will consider catastrophe property of accident and providing early warning signals for managers and designers. The concept of Logistics Infrastructure Safety Carrying Capacity (LISC) is explored based on the perspective of carrying capacity. The carrier-load model is used to define logistics infrastructure safety. The evaluation of LISC performance employs the Catastrophe Progression Method (CPM) to determine the safety state of logistics infrastructure. By applying the LISC-CPM model to the empirical study of China's logistics infrastructure safety from 2011 to 2022, some conclusions are drawn: (1) The LISC-CPM method is suitable for logistics infrastructure safety monitoring. This model can combine the characteristics of different transportation modes and the catastrophe attributes of safety accidents for early safety warning; (2) Over a 12-year period, the early warning level for logistics infrastructure in China significantly improved, transitioning from “severe-level unsafe warning” to “safe.” (3) There is considerable variation in safety performance across different types of logistics infrastructure. The safety of railway and waterway has the most significant influence on the safety of logistics infrastructure. In general, the study can provide valuable tools for enhancing the safety of logistics infrastructure.