A Simulation Model of Resilience Evaluation for Natural Gas Pipeline Network Systems

Resilience is a key component of system safety evaluation and optimization, and research on natural gas pipeline network system (NGPNS) resilience indices and corresponding evaluation is still in early stages. To evaluate the resilience of NGPNS more synthetically and realistically, and to take into account different forms of disruptions, an integrated simulation model combining the topology and operational parameters is provided. The properties of deterministic disruptions, such as earthquakes and equipment breakdowns, are investigated. The maximum flow method and the shortest path method are combined with operational and structural parameters, to assess the amounts and routes of gas supply before and after disturbance; using complex networks theory and graph theory, the traditional view point is changed from the entire system to the affected area. The results can help guide NGPNS topological design and the development of prewarning schemes, including spare gas sources and gas route optimization, as well as pipeline maintenance strategy. They can also aid in the rapid analysis of disturbance consequences and the improvement of NGPNS resilience evaluating accuracy.