Electoral support for the 5 Star Movement in Milan: An ecological analysis of social and spatial factors

After the 2018 general election, several scholars remarked on the failure of the 5 Star Movement (5SM) to increase its vote in Milan. While the role of demographic and socioeconomic factors has been highlighted, little attention has been devoted to spatial dynamics. The authors analyze the greater city of Milan using a new set of spatial units that capture the characteristics of the local populations which voted at specific polling stations. They regress support for the 5SM in each electoral district on a range of demographic, socioeconomic and spatial variables. The results show that more disadvantaged districts just outside the municipality have a strong propensity to support the 5SM. Many of the individuals and families living in these areas were negatively affected by economic crisis and continue to experience strain. These are not places of extreme marginality but have unsatisfied needs that are largely ignored by the traditional parties.