Perché il M5S non ha sfondato a Milano? Un’analisi strutturale a scala metropolitana

In the aftermath of the 2018 general election results, several scholars have remarked on the inability of the Five Star Movement to increase its vote in Milan. While the role of demographic and socio-economic factors has been highlighted, little attention has been dedicated to understanding the complex role of spatial dynamics. This paper aims to contribute to the existing literature by inquiring about the relationship between support for the Five Star Movement and the characteristics of urban space in Milan. Following the longstanding debate in urban sociology, we recognise the importance of investigating this question beyond the borders of the central municipality. We overcome the problematic nature of standard approaches by analysing the entire Functional Urban Area of Milan as defined by the Oecd, using a new set of areas. Adopting an ecological approach, we define our spatial units in such a way that they have a sociological meaning and embrace the characteristics of the local population which actually voted at a specific polling station. We regress support for the Five Star Movement in each electoral district on a range of demographic, socio-economic and spatial variables. The results show that more disadvantaged districts beyond Milan’s municipal borders have a strong propensity towards supporting the Five Star Movement. Many of these areas were negatively affected by the economic crisis of 2008 and continue to experience severe difficulties. They are not places of extreme marginality, but may be described as «disenfranchised» areas with many unsatisfied needs that are largely ignored by the traditional parties.