Away from the cities? A medium-to-long-term investigation of how the COVID-19 pandemic has changed population spatial patterns in Italy

This article focuses on the medium-to-long-term effects of COVID-19 and associated non-pharmaceutical interventions on population movements across the urban-rural spectrum in Italy. By analysing data from Facebook/Meta, population registers, and the housing market from January 2020 to May 2022, we aim to determine whether trends observed at the beginning of the pandemic have sustained over time. Results indicate an initial shift away from densely populated urban areas, marked by increased Facebook connections, higher rent prices and rising property sales in less densely populated locales. As the pandemic progressed, however, a decline in Facebook connections outside of urban poles indicated a resurgence in urban living. At the same time, intermediate and ultra-peripheral regions continued to attract permanent residents, as evidenced by a lively housing market and population growth in these areas. This suggests a complex pattern, where urban areas remain attractive, but the appeal of suburban and rural living has significantly increased, with both theoretical and practical implications. These findings challenge existing models of urbanisation and call for a re-evaluation of the factors driving residential preferences and mobility. Ultimately, a better understanding of these patterns could inform balanced policies that leverage internal migration dynamics, by supporting infrastructure development in suburban and rural areas, while adjusting urban planning to mitigate potential negative impacts like overcrowding and resource strain.