Natural Risk Assessment of Italian Municipalities for Residential Insurance

In this work, we propose a catastrophe modeling approach to flood and earthquake risk assessment for residential buildings in Italy. This work aims at supporting governors in the definition of a natural risk management strategy. To detect the critical areas of the territory, we compute expected losses per square meter, per municipality, and per structural typology. Our approach allows us to identify the areas where the exposure strongly affects the risk due to the high inhabited density or the presence of fragile buildings. This information is of major relevance for disaster risk reduction. We find that earthquakes in Italy generate annual expected losses approximately equal to 6234.67 million Euros, while flood expected losses amount to about 875.90 million Euros per year. Although earthquakes produce the highest expected losses at the national level, flood losses per square meter often exceed the corresponding earthquake ones.