Future hydropower production under the framework of NextGenerationEU: The case of Santa Giustina reservoir in Italian Alps

Here we study the effects of climate change upon the dynamics of Santa Giustina Lake, a main reservoir of Trentino, North-eastern Italy, exploited by Taio power plant providing about 282 GWh per year. We used PoliHydro model to investigate hydrological regime of the basin during last 30 years, this including snow accumulation and ablation processes. Calibration of Poli-Hydro was carried out using a 10-yrs series of daily natural inflows to the reservoir during 1990-1999. Climate scenarios from Assessment Report 6 of IPCC were used as input to sketch future inflow scenarios. While no univocal trajectory is depicted for total water availability among scenarios, the decrease of snowfall would most reliably reduce spring-summer inflow and increase winter baseflow. Associated scenarios of energy production are analysed on the background of Italian energy goals for 2030-40 under the framework of NextGenerationEU, and possible adaptation policies of reservoir management are suggested. To face volatility in energy production given by deep exploitation of renewable sources, it is compelling to consider chances of installing energy storage systems. A pumped-storage facility could be implemented in the Mollaro Lake, a minor reservoir collecting water from Taio plant, to store surplus energy from renewable sources in Santa Giustina Lake.