Modelling the relationships between urban land cover change and local climate regulation to estimate urban heat island effect

Urban land covers affect the thermal characteristics of the city, such as the urban heat island (UHI) effect, potentially increasing energy demand to maintain comfortable indoor and outdoor temperatures. As the land patterns change, the capacity of the landscape to regulate the UHI can change. The aim of this paper is to explore how simulating land cover changes (LCC) may affect UHI using an ecosystem service matrix approach. A LCC model, illustrated in the case study of Lisbon, Portugal, was implemented to estimate the UHI effects over time starting from the modelling of land cover changes associated with the supply of local climate regulation service. Our results show that the capacity of urban landscape to mitigate the UHI effect has decreased since 1990, and will continue to decrease slightly until 2022 although more smoothly than between 1990 and 2000. This is because no substantial land cover changes have occurred after 2000 that required the transition between highest to lowest ecosystem service supplier landscapes. The proposed modelling approach may be refined and used to aiding the decision making process for urban planners in the placement of built structures and green spaces that have the capacity to regulate local climate.