Scenario building through a systemic lens: a new perspective on tools and methods to design for sustainability transitions

The connection between sustainability and the future has its roots in the early days of environmental movements. The report ‘The Limits to Growth’ (Meadows et al., 1974) highlights how sustainable action implies wide-ranging, systemic considerations and forward-looking thinking. This is also reflected in the definition of Sustainable Development provided in the Report ‘Our Common Future’ (WCED, 1987). Working for sustainability, in fact, usually means taking a long-term approach, which also ties in with radical and socio-technical innovations. In recent times, however, the world has faced complex systemic social, technical, and environmental challenges, which will be increasingly interconnected and interdependent. Systems theory allows us to rethink such phenomena as isolated elements and complex systems made up of many interacting parts (Vargo et al., 2017). Placed in a timeline, it is possible to highlight how changing events are getting closer and vertical, showing us a new vision of time and the future. Scenario Building is a widely used method in design to generate future visions. By applying a systemic lens to this methodology, this paper aims to provide a new awareness through which it can emphasise the relationships that a new future implies and underlies. The analysis has made it possible to define new characteristics of Scenario Building that emphasise its relationships and spatio-temporal connections. These new considerations converge in the Design for Sustainability Transitions perspective, showing how the designer, thanks to the connections capacity and envisioning, plays a crucial role in transforming a socio-technical system (Ceschin & Gaziulusoy, 2019).