Very Short-Term Forecast: Different Classification Methods of the Whole Sky Camera Images for Sudden PV Power Variations Detection

Solar radiation is by nature intermittent and influenced by many factors such as latitude, season and atmospheric conditions. As a consequence, the growing penetration of Photovoltaic (PV) systems into the electricity network implies significant problems of stability, reliability and scheduling of power grid operation. Concerning the very short-term PV power production, the power fluctuations are primarily related to the interaction between solar irradiance and cloud cover. In small-scale systems such as microgrids, the adoption of a forecasting tool is a brilliant solution to minimize PV power curtailment and limit the installed energy storage capacity. In the present work, two different nowcasting methods are applied to classify the solar attenuation due to clouds presence on five different forecast horizons, from 1 to 5 min: a Pattern Recognition Neural Network and a Random Forest model. The proposed methods are tested and compared on a real case study: available data consists of historical irradiance measurements and infrared sky images collected in a real PV facility, the SolarTech(LAB) in Politecnico di Milano. The classification output is a range of values corresponding to the future value assumed by the Clear Sky Index (CSI), an indicator allowing to account for irradiance variations only related to clouds passage, neglecting diurnal and seasonal influences. The developed models present similar performance in all the considered time horizons, reliably detecting the CSI drops caused by incoming overcast and partially cloudy sky conditions.