A probabilistic approach to mid-term conflict detection with accuracy estimate

This paper describes an approach to mid-term probabilistic conflict detection between two aircraft flying at the same altitude. The key distinguishing feature of the proposed method is that it analyti-cally estimates the conflict probability, in the presence of a fully correlated wind field. The method uses a two-step approach. First, the mean and the covariance of the aircraft relative position are com-puted analytically. Then, the conflict probability is estimated such that a desired level of accuracy is obtained. Numerical results, conducted using a simulator incorporating a fully correlated wind field model, show the effectiveness of the approach versus the competitors. Finally, sensitivity of the method to the parameters is investigated.