Impact of Decision Scenarios on the Value of Seismic Structural Health Monitoring

The limited knowledge that decision-makers have on the actual condition of civil structures and infrastructures complicates the management of seismic emergencies in urbanized areas. In this respect, Seismic Structural Health Monitoring (S2HM) can support decision-makers by providing real-time information on the structural condition. Nevertheless, S2HM information comes with a cost, and decision-makers have to decide if installing this type of system is worthy before the information is collected. In this paper, the benefit of S2HM in post-earthquake emergency management is assessed through the Value of Information (VoI) from Bayesian decision analysis. The VoI can be intended as the expected reduction in management costs resulting from monitoring information. If the VoI is higher than the cost of the monitoring system, the manager should install it. The methodology is applied to an exemplary building in a seismic area. It is demonstrated and discussed in the paper that the value of S2HM is strongly influenced by the decision scenario considered by the decision-maker. Specifically, it is shown that the VoI is particularly high when the S2HM information prevents unnecessary building evacuation and related losses of functionality.