This paper investigates how dividend policies may influence the creation and propagation of cycles between real economy and financial markets. We focus on the effect of a constant dividend policy on the stability of the aggregate economy, by means of a discrete dynamical framework in which managers, individuals and financial mediators coexist. We show the counter-intuitive effect of the dividend payout ratio: in a developed economy, an increase in dividends leads to a lower stock price level due to the cross-feedback effect between markets. Moreover, in non-developed economies the choice of managers and individuals may not influence the propagation of fluctuations, while in developed economies, high payout ratios and high sensitivity to market trends trigger a cross-feedback effect between the two markets that amplifies their volatility and drags the whole economy into fluctuations and cycles.

Nonlinear dynamics in real economy and financial markets: The role of dividend policies in fluctuations

Grassetti, Francesca;
2022-01-01

Abstract

This paper investigates how dividend policies may influence the creation and propagation of cycles between real economy and financial markets. We focus on the effect of a constant dividend policy on the stability of the aggregate economy, by means of a discrete dynamical framework in which managers, individuals and financial mediators coexist. We show the counter-intuitive effect of the dividend payout ratio: in a developed economy, an increase in dividends leads to a lower stock price level due to the cross-feedback effect between markets. Moreover, in non-developed economies the choice of managers and individuals may not influence the propagation of fluctuations, while in developed economies, high payout ratios and high sensitivity to market trends trigger a cross-feedback effect between the two markets that amplifies their volatility and drags the whole economy into fluctuations and cycles.
2022
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11311/1217125
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