Motivated by the pressing request of methods able to create prediction sets in a general regression framework for a multivariate functional response, we propose a set of conformal predictors that produce finite-sample either valid or exact multivariate simultaneous prediction bands under the mild assumption of exchangeable regression pairs. The fact that the prediction bands can be built around any regression estimator and that can be easily found in closed form yields a very widely usable method, which is fairly straightforward to implement. In addition, we first introduce and then describe a specific conformal predictor that guarantees an asymptotic result in terms of efficiency and inducing prediction bands able to modulate their width based on the local behavior and magnitude of the functional data. The method is investigated and analyzed through a simulation study and a real-world application in the field of urban mobility.

Conformal prediction bands for multivariate functional data

Fontana M.;Vantini S.
2022

Abstract

Motivated by the pressing request of methods able to create prediction sets in a general regression framework for a multivariate functional response, we propose a set of conformal predictors that produce finite-sample either valid or exact multivariate simultaneous prediction bands under the mild assumption of exchangeable regression pairs. The fact that the prediction bands can be built around any regression estimator and that can be easily found in closed form yields a very widely usable method, which is fairly straightforward to implement. In addition, we first introduce and then describe a specific conformal predictor that guarantees an asymptotic result in terms of efficiency and inducing prediction bands able to modulate their width based on the local behavior and magnitude of the functional data. The method is investigated and analyzed through a simulation study and a real-world application in the field of urban mobility.
Conformal Prediction
Distribution-free prediction set
Exact prediction set
Finite-sample prediction set
Functional data
Prediction band
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11311/1205183
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