The COVID-19 pandemic and the disordered reactions of most governments made the importance of mathematical modelling and model-based predictions evident, even outside the scientific community. The basic reproduction number quickly entered the common jargon, as a concise but effective tool to communicate the spreading power of a disease and estimate, at least roughly, the possible outcomes of the epidemic. However, while is easily defined for simple models, its proper definition is more subtle for larger, state-of-the-art models. Here we show that it is nothing else than the spectral radius of the gain matrix of a linear system, and that this matrix generalizes in the computation of the vector-valued final epidemic size and epidemic threshold, in a large class of finite-dimensional SIR-like models.

The basic reproduction number as a loop gain matrix

Colombo A.
2021

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic and the disordered reactions of most governments made the importance of mathematical modelling and model-based predictions evident, even outside the scientific community. The basic reproduction number quickly entered the common jargon, as a concise but effective tool to communicate the spreading power of a disease and estimate, at least roughly, the possible outcomes of the epidemic. However, while is easily defined for simple models, its proper definition is more subtle for larger, state-of-the-art models. Here we show that it is nothing else than the spectral radius of the gain matrix of a linear system, and that this matrix generalizes in the computation of the vector-valued final epidemic size and epidemic threshold, in a large class of finite-dimensional SIR-like models.
Biological systems
Compartmental and Positive systems
Computational modeling
COVID-19
Eigenvalues and eigenfunctions
Epidemics
Mathematical model
Network analysis and control.
Sociology
Statistics
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11311/1203157
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