FORECASTING THE SUCCESS OF HYPERLOOP TECHNOLOGY ON ITALIAN ROUTES: A BROAD FEASIBILITY STUDY

Large Infrastructure Projects, also referred as Large Engineering Projects (or LEPs), are always controversial due to the fact that standard cost-benefit analysis and other economic evaluations are often negative due to their high implementation cost and their high level of risk related the uncertainty and innovation they bring with them. Anyway, in the last decades, the investment on LEPs in increasing all over the world (Flyvjierg, B., 2014), and the construction of LEPs is still considered a basic leverage to increase the wealth of nations. The topic is particularly relevant at EU level. In fact the decision-making process on which infrastructure (LEP) should be funded and which not by the public sector has been criticized by new “sovranist” political parties. For example, studies both in favor and against the funding of the same infrastructure have been published by different academics, even belonging to the same institution (Ponti, M. et al., 2019) (Cantarella G.E., et al., 2019). In the last few months there is a lot of discussion in Italy about the feasibility of an Hyperloop, that is a “Hyperloop is a sealed tube or system of tubes through which a pod may travel free of air resistance or friction conveying people or objects at high speed while being very efficient, thereby drastically reducing travel times over medium-range distances” (Opgenoord, Max M.J., 2019). In particular, six possible route have been drafted, e.g. Milan-Rome, Milan Cadorna Station-Milan Malpensa Airport, Verona-Trieste and others. The Authors want to evaluate the economic feasibility of that revolutionary transpiration mode, applying a broad approach, according both the indications of the European Commission's Guide to Cost-Benefit Analysis of Investment Projects (2014), including both ordinary costs and benefits, and evaluation also the innovation benefits that such transportation mode, if implemented, will bring: evaluating such a transportation mode as, for example, an ordinary high speed train mode, won’t be correct, because implementing it will cause innovation in several technologic fields and in the transportation sector as a whole, and these benefits must be encompassed in the analysis. In addition, the authors will evaluate other success criteria such as the one indicated by Atkinson, R. (1999), i.e. “stakeholder benefits against which projects can be assessed”. Including the approach by Turner and Zolin (2012) of taking into account multiple perspectives by multiple stakeholders over multiple time frames: In Large Engineering Projects “How different stakeholders perceive success can change with time, and so the project manager needs leading performance indicators that go beyond the traditional triple constraint to forecast how key stakeholders will perceive success months or even years later” (Turner and Zolin, 2012). This research has the aim of carrying out a preliminary technical-economic feasibility study of a potential Hyperloop line connecting the cities of Rome and Milan, chosen as they are poles of attraction and generators of transportation demand. The main objective is not to analyze the validity of the technology used as to assess the feasibility and sustainability of such a project. The first section briefly describes the history and technology, the main characteristics and limitations of these vehicles. The second section presents a transportation study of the potential demand through surveys that will make it possible to identify users' preferences, assessing the transportation demand and the willingness to pay of potential users. In the third and fourth sections a financial and economic analysis is performed, presenting assumptions and limitations that this research necessarily has, due to the lack of information on several areas. In the last section before conclusions, some consideration is made about the possible social impact on potential stakeholders involvement, presenting also preliminary feedback from interviews to industrial stakeholder that are considering their involvement in a hyperloop venture in Italy. In the last section, the Authors make a balance of their findings and outline the further development of the research on this topic.