On Uncertainty, Decision Values and Innovation

This paper contains a description, an alignment and a joint approach for technology readiness development with a three phases support of decision value analyses. The three phases are separated into the decision value forecasting, decision value analysis and the technology value quantification supporting the technological concept formulation and experimental testing, the prototype development and the technology qualification and operation. Decision value forecasting allows technology development guidance by technology performance requirements and the value creation even before the technology development is started. This approach is exemplified with load, damage and resistance information based integrity management of a structure and the ranking of the different strategies. The results can be used to guide a technology screening for matching with performance characteristics in terms of precision, cost and employability. Moreover, the first estimate of value creation of the technology for stakeholders, business models and market evaluation is provided.