Long term, cross-country effects of buildings insulation policies

Building codes are an effective policy instrument to reduce energy consumption, but their impact depends on local building construction, renovation and demolition cycles, affected by economic and demographic development. In this research a unique global building stock model, with country level detail, is developed to understand the impact of building codes on global energy scenarios. The model shows that the majority of buildings standing in 2050 will be built after 2015, mostly outside of the OECD. In these regions despite growing space cooling demand due to projected economic development, insulation levels of new buildings remain low. New construction policies could thereby have a significant impact. In Africa and China the model shows that if all new buildings would be near zero-energy buildings in 2050 this would save respectively 64% and 43% of space heating and cooling energy demand. In OECD countries, on the contrary, the slower stock turn-over results in renovation policies being more effective, but also more vulnerable to delays. Delaying policy implementation by only 10 years drops global annual emission savings in 2050 by approximately 1 Gt CO2, showing the necessity of a fast and ambitious ramp up of building codes for achieving the Paris climate agreement.