We predict the evolution of the daily number of infected cases from CoVid-19 virus. We use the theory of learning from errors, adapted to the problem of virus containment by protective measures such as testing, isolation and social distancing. The theory is consistent with the findings of cognitive psychology on how humans address the solution of errors. Application of these measures leads to the infection rate declining, after reaching a peak. We use publicly available data to predict the recovery rate curve and the time still needed to reach minimum infection rates.

Predicting the rate of CoVid-19 infected cases by Learning Theory

Zio E.
2020-01-01

Abstract

We predict the evolution of the daily number of infected cases from CoVid-19 virus. We use the theory of learning from errors, adapted to the problem of virus containment by protective measures such as testing, isolation and social distancing. The theory is consistent with the findings of cognitive psychology on how humans address the solution of errors. Application of these measures leads to the infection rate declining, after reaching a peak. We use publicly available data to predict the recovery rate curve and the time still needed to reach minimum infection rates.
2020
30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2020
Covid-19
Infection rate
Learning theory
Recovery curve
Resilience
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11311/1181270
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