Some equipment degradation processes have long-range dependence (LRD) and multi-modes characteristics. The multi-modes are caused by changes of the external environment, the operating conditions and the loads throughout the lifetime of the equipment. In the present paper, a multi-modal Fractional Lévy Stable Motion (FLSM) degradation model is developed to predict the product technical life or remaining useful life (RUL) of equipment. The advantage of FLSM lies in its LRD characteristics and its ability to describe multiple stochastic distributions as the tail parameter α changes. Multi-modes, switching points and modal categories are identified by change point detection and clustering algorithms, and a Markov state transition matrix describes the modes switching law. The probability density function (PDF) of RUL is established by Monte Carlo Simulation. The effectiveness of the prediction model is verified by a practical example of a blast furnace.

Product technical life prediction based on multi-modes and fractional Lévy stable motion

Zio E.;
2021-01-01

Abstract

Some equipment degradation processes have long-range dependence (LRD) and multi-modes characteristics. The multi-modes are caused by changes of the external environment, the operating conditions and the loads throughout the lifetime of the equipment. In the present paper, a multi-modal Fractional Lévy Stable Motion (FLSM) degradation model is developed to predict the product technical life or remaining useful life (RUL) of equipment. The advantage of FLSM lies in its LRD characteristics and its ability to describe multiple stochastic distributions as the tail parameter α changes. Multi-modes, switching points and modal categories are identified by change point detection and clustering algorithms, and a Markov state transition matrix describes the modes switching law. The probability density function (PDF) of RUL is established by Monte Carlo Simulation. The effectiveness of the prediction model is verified by a practical example of a blast furnace.
Blast furnace
Degradation model
Fractional Lévy stable motion
Long-range dependence
Multi-modes
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
1-s2.0-S0888327021003691-main.pdf

Accesso riservato

: Publisher’s version
Dimensione 1.44 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
1.44 MB Adobe PDF   Visualizza/Apri

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11311/1181138
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 18
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 19
social impact