A Multi-temporal Satellite-based Risk Analysis of Archaeological Sites in the Qazvin Region (Iran)

In recent decades, we have witnessed a dramatic increase in the risks and damages to archaeological sites and heritage places across the globe. By analysing a case study (the Qazvin plain) in northern Iran, we propose a classification of the types of risks and damages to archaeological sites and we assess the impact of each type over the last 40 years (1980s–2020s). Our research methodology consists of the cross-correlated multi-temporal analysis of different sets of satellite imagery with 167 archaeological sites in the Qazvin plain to determine the types, extension and evolution of the damages over the time. This methodology allowed to develop a three-tier hierarchical framework based on the drivers, threats, and actions jeopardizing the cultural heritage of the region. The result of this study permits to overturn current narratives inferring that the most impacting risks to archaeological sites and heritage places are caused by natural hazards, looting and violent destruction rather than agricultural activity or construction. Consequently, based on this evidence, we draw a distinction between ‘silent’ but constant and pervasive and ‘loud’ but short-living and circumscribed risks.