Future mobility scenarios and land use: impacts assessment with an urban case study

In recent years interest in urban mobility has grown considerably, not only due to the local increase in negative externalities generated by transport, but even because recent technological innovations are offering effective solutions especially in urban context. In particular, the introduction of Connected and Automated Vehicles could radically change the mobility scenario allowing, on the one hand, a widespread diffusion of vehicles in shared mode that feed the stations of the mass rapid transit network (with consequent improvement in the attractiveness of Public Transport services), and on the other, the implementation of Travel Demand Management measures on large areas of the most densely urbanized (and congested) territory of a city, without take the risk of reducing accessibility and creating social exclusion. The present study aims to evaluate, through a system of Land-Use Transport Interaction models, the impacts on the demand for mobility and on the territory, deriving from the implementation of policies oriented to both enhancing the Public Transport and restricting the individual use of private vehicles. The case study analyzed is represented by the urban area of Rome. Several development scenarios of the city have been simulated and compared through a set of economic, environmental and social sustainability indicators. Preliminary results show that with the improvement of collective transport services, combined with large-scale restricted traffic areas and pedestrian zones, it is possible to achieve not only a significant modal shift towards sustainable transport alternatives, but also a limitation of the urban sprawl phenomenon.