Electrification pathways of the Italian residential sector under socio-demographic constrains: Looking towards 2040

What are the required costs to sustain the electrification of the residential sector? What are the achievable primary energy savings? This paper tries to answer these questions, for the Italian residential sector, by providing coupled energetical and economic evaluations of the electrification pathways. To this end, this paper extends MOIRAE, a bottom-up modelling approach previously proposed by the authors. First, the input data have been upgraded by coupling, using ad-hoc statistical methods, different datasets provided by the Italian Institute of Statistics. Second, to estimate households’ time-variation, a socio-demographic model has been developed, validated, and implemented. Third, an economic model of fixed and variable costs for electrical and thermal appliances has been implemented. Subsequently, the modelling approach has been calibrated against detailed consumption data for the different Italian regions and validated against historical data. Finally, MOIRAE has been employed to unveil the electrification pathways with and without household budget constraints, aiming at replacing natural gas, LPG, diesel, and fuel oil energy carriers with electrical energy. For the different scenarios investigated, the changes in primary energy consumptions and the variation of variable and fixed costs have been included to consider both the energetic and the economic point of view.