Modeling Re-Entry Break-Up Uncertainties with Continuity Equation and Gaussian Mixture Models Interpolation

The effect of uncertainties in the re-entry and break-up of satellites is analyzed. Two contributions are considered: the effect of the initial uncertainties of the parent trajectory and the break-up event, characterized by high thermal and mechanical loads and tumbling motion. Specifically, this last phenomenon may cause the scattering of the components off the nominal trajectory of the parent spacecraft. The presented study describes the uncertainties and the break-up event through probability distributions, propagates them using a continuum approach, and reconstructs the uncertainties at future states using the Starling suite developed at Politecnico di Milano.