Assessing impact of PV systems on centralised generation

In response to climate change concerns, most of the industrialized countries have committed in recent years to increase their share of Renewable Energy Sources (RES), in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, the rapid deployment of small-scale photovoltaic (PV) systems, mainly in residential applications, is starting to represent a considerable portion of the available electrical power generation and, for this reason the stochastic and intermittent nature of these systems is impacting on the operation of centralized resources. Network operators are constantly changing their approach to both short-term and long-term forecasting activities due to the higher complexity of the scenario in which more and more stakeholders have active roles in the network. The scope of this paper is to create a model to evaluate the impact of generation from aggregated rooftop PV systems along with a model to simulate future contributions. The model is developed in MATLAB and the methodology used is based on statistical assumptions concerning the available details about PV systems installed.