Soft-linking bottom-up energy models with top-down input-output models to assess the environmental impact of future energy scenarios

Traditional bottom-up energy models have been widely applied so far to assess the future energy technologies over a specific time horizon, quantifying the direct economic and environmental implications of future energy scenarios. However, such approaches ignore the interactions that the energy sector has with other sectors in the economy, hence failing in quantifying the global impact of future energy technologies. This study assesses the economic and environmental impact of an institutional energy scenario in the Egyptian economy, by soft linking a bottom-up, technology-rich model (OSeMOSYS) with a top-down Input-Output model (IOA). Based on the prospective institutional scenarios for Egypt, the energy model assesses the evolution of the Egyptian electricity mix towards 2040. Then, the future energy scenario has been applied to the IOA model in terms of change in energy technology mix, change in final demand of electricity and change in national GDP production. It is found that while primary energy consumption and GHG emissions of the energy sector are likely to decrease in the next decades, a significant increase in the same indicators for all the other national sectors is expected, thus unveiling the need to increase and diversify the energy efficiency investments in all the Egyptian economy.