Investigating the future of the fuzzy front end: towards a change of paradigm in the very early design phases?

Many scholars argue that very early design phases are not supported adequately in many respects, although they are at the cornerstone of successful new product development. Difficulties in developing appropriate methods emerge because of the need to account for uncertainties and ambiguities that feature the Fuzzy Front End. This is likely the reason behind the limited industrial adoption of existing design methods, especially those that are oriented to support Product Planning. In this context, the thrust of the paper is the attempt to identify key activities and functions featuring Product Planning. The study entrusts figures about the foreseeable growth of the intensity of research displayed by classes of methods supporting different functions in Product Planning. As the data, emerging from the application of S-curves, indicate no preferential direction in the medium term, other phenomena are monitored that might overturn the conventional systematic course of action to design in the early stages. The ‘trial-and-error’ learning approach characterising agile strategies can be seen as a partial answer to the expected demise of research about Product Planning. Beyond these conclusions, the paper includes a frame of reference that classifies Product Planning methods (adequately reviewed) beyond the classical distinction between responsive and proactive approaches.