Microgrid design: sensitivity on models and parameters

Designing off-grid systems in developing countries is not a trivial task; unpredictable energy sources and uncertain load demands have to match in a seamless solution, providing the most favourable conditions in terms of adequacy with respect to the energy needs and costs. The challenge is to define which parameters/assumptions could have a strong impact on the results in order to properly model them. This paper is based on a peculiar study case: a microgrid deployed by the Politecnico di Milano team in Tanzania, load and generator power profiles have been sampled each second over many months. Given such a large amount of data, it is proposed a sensitivity analysis devoted to quantifying the impact that different assumptions could have in the design of a theoretical new microgrid that could optimally feed the loads. Numerical analysis is based on a tool, named PoliNRG, developed by a research team of Politecnico di Milano.