Energy access projects in remote off-grid areas would benefit from the adoption of a multi-energy system perspective, addressing all energy needs – not only lighting and power appliances, but also water-heating and cooking – by means of a mix of energy vectors. However, multi-energy analyses in remote areas are hindered by a lack of models allowing for the generation of multi-energy load profiles based on interview-based information characterised by high uncertainty. This study proposes a novel open-source bottom-up stochastic model specifically conceived for the generation of multi-energy loads for systems located in remote areas. The model is tested and validated against data obtained from a real system, showing a very good approximation of measured profiles, with percentage errors consistently below 2% for all the selected indicators, and an improved accuracy compared to existing approaches. In particular, some innovative features – such as the possibility to define and modulate throughout the day appliances’ duty cycles – seem to be determinant in marking a difference with previous approaches. This might arguably be even more beneficial for case studies characterised by a larger penetration of appliances that are subject to complex and unpredictable duty cycle behaviour.

Generating high-resolution multi-energy load profiles for remote areas with an open-source stochastic model

Lombardi, Francesco;Colombo, Emanuela
2019

Abstract

Energy access projects in remote off-grid areas would benefit from the adoption of a multi-energy system perspective, addressing all energy needs – not only lighting and power appliances, but also water-heating and cooking – by means of a mix of energy vectors. However, multi-energy analyses in remote areas are hindered by a lack of models allowing for the generation of multi-energy load profiles based on interview-based information characterised by high uncertainty. This study proposes a novel open-source bottom-up stochastic model specifically conceived for the generation of multi-energy loads for systems located in remote areas. The model is tested and validated against data obtained from a real system, showing a very good approximation of measured profiles, with percentage errors consistently below 2% for all the selected indicators, and an improved accuracy compared to existing approaches. In particular, some innovative features – such as the possibility to define and modulate throughout the day appliances’ duty cycles – seem to be determinant in marking a difference with previous approaches. This might arguably be even more beneficial for case studies characterised by a larger penetration of appliances that are subject to complex and unpredictable duty cycle behaviour.
Energy demand; Load profile; Multi-energy system; Off-grid; Rural areas; Civil and Structural Engineering; Building and Construction; Pollution; Mechanical Engineering; Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering; Electrical and Electronic Engineering
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11311/1087101
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