Probabilistic modeling of aging masonry

Among the factors that mostly influence the damage of ancient masonry structures, viscous sliding and creep-fatigue interaction are among those that worth mentioning; in particular, persistent heavy loads have proved to be the cause of a continuous and slow damage. The problem of obtaining a reliable estimate of the service life of historical masonry buildings towards the effects of persistent load involves many uncertainties, therefore it can conveniently be treated with a probabilistic method. The proposed stochastic approach is rather simple and finds its basis in that proposed in the previous chapter for the evaluation of the durability of stone material over time. In this chapter, the results of laboratory pseudo-creep tests on ancient masonry of different ages will be interpreted through the application of a probabilistic model; the problem of progressive damage for high persistent loads is therefore treated as a classic problem of reliability by arriving at a probabilistic forecast of the times of collapse.