Determining the conditions that favor pathogen establishment in a host community is key to disease control and eradication. However, focusing on long-term dynamics alone may lead to an underestimation of the threats imposed by outbreaks triggered by short-term transient phenomena. Achieving an effective epidemiological response thus requires to look at different timescales, each of which may be endowed with specific management objectives. In this work we aim to determine epidemicity thresholds for some prototypical examples of water-borne and water-related diseases, a diverse family of infections transmitted either directly through water infested with pathogens or by vectors whose lifecycles are closely associated with water. From a technical perspective, while conditions for endemicity are determined via stability analysis, epidemicity thresholds are defined through generalized reactivity analysis, a recently proposed method that allows the study of the short-term instability properties of ecological systems. Understanding the drivers of water-borne and water-related disease dynamics over timescales that may be relevant to epidemic and/or endemic transmission is a challenge of the utmost importance, as large portions of the developing world are still struggling with the burden imposed by these infections. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Epidemicity thresholds for water-borne and water-related diseases

Mari, Lorenzo;Casagrandi, Renato;Gatto, Marino
2018-01-01

Abstract

Determining the conditions that favor pathogen establishment in a host community is key to disease control and eradication. However, focusing on long-term dynamics alone may lead to an underestimation of the threats imposed by outbreaks triggered by short-term transient phenomena. Achieving an effective epidemiological response thus requires to look at different timescales, each of which may be endowed with specific management objectives. In this work we aim to determine epidemicity thresholds for some prototypical examples of water-borne and water-related diseases, a diverse family of infections transmitted either directly through water infested with pathogens or by vectors whose lifecycles are closely associated with water. From a technical perspective, while conditions for endemicity are determined via stability analysis, epidemicity thresholds are defined through generalized reactivity analysis, a recently proposed method that allows the study of the short-term instability properties of ecological systems. Understanding the drivers of water-borne and water-related disease dynamics over timescales that may be relevant to epidemic and/or endemic transmission is a challenge of the utmost importance, as large portions of the developing world are still struggling with the burden imposed by these infections. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
2018
Cholera; Dengue fever; Disease control; Generalized reactivity; Malaria; Schistosomiasis; Short- and long-term instability
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
mari_et_al_MS_rev1.pdf

Accesso riservato

: Post-Print (DRAFT o Author’s Accepted Manuscript-AAM)
Dimensione 719.04 kB
Formato Adobe PDF
719.04 kB Adobe PDF   Visualizza/Apri

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11311/1061555
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? 6
  • Scopus 16
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 10
social impact