Strategic basin-scale planning of dam portfolios has been promoted as suitable approach to find sustainable trade-offs between hydropower production and dam environmental impacts, such as sediment trapping, on river ecosystem services. With regard to sediment trapping, strategic planning is potentially impeded by the poor knowledge of sediment origins in many large rivers and the potentially dramatic future changes in land use and climate change and hence erosion rates and sediment yields. For the case study of the Mekong River Basin, we herein show how some broad estimates of sediment yields can be used for strategic planning that is robust with regard to poor knowledge of sediment origins in the basin and future change. We feed a network scale model for sediment routing and dam sediment trapping with a broad delineation of the basin in nine geomorphic zones with different sediment yields. We couple that framework to a Multi Objective Evolutionary algorithm and a formal sensitivity analysis. Based on the results, we find that the Mekong basin is at a turning point. Strategic planning could still lead to better trade-offs between hydropower production and sediment trapping, following the planned development trajectory will instead lead to a critical reduction in sediment yield. Our results are robust with regard to estimated sediment yields, hence indicating that even broad estimates of sediment production can be of great value for better hydropower decision making in large river basins

Identifying sustainable and robust trade-offs between hydropower and sediment trapping under uncertain sediment yields in the Mekong River Basin

Rafael Schmitt;Simone Bizzi;castelletti andrea;
2018-01-01

Abstract

Strategic basin-scale planning of dam portfolios has been promoted as suitable approach to find sustainable trade-offs between hydropower production and dam environmental impacts, such as sediment trapping, on river ecosystem services. With regard to sediment trapping, strategic planning is potentially impeded by the poor knowledge of sediment origins in many large rivers and the potentially dramatic future changes in land use and climate change and hence erosion rates and sediment yields. For the case study of the Mekong River Basin, we herein show how some broad estimates of sediment yields can be used for strategic planning that is robust with regard to poor knowledge of sediment origins in the basin and future change. We feed a network scale model for sediment routing and dam sediment trapping with a broad delineation of the basin in nine geomorphic zones with different sediment yields. We couple that framework to a Multi Objective Evolutionary algorithm and a formal sensitivity analysis. Based on the results, we find that the Mekong basin is at a turning point. Strategic planning could still lead to better trade-offs between hydropower production and sediment trapping, following the planned development trajectory will instead lead to a critical reduction in sediment yield. Our results are robust with regard to estimated sediment yields, hence indicating that even broad estimates of sediment production can be of great value for better hydropower decision making in large river basins
2018
Integrative sciences and sustainable development of rivers
978-2-917199-08-4
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11311/1061364
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