An integrated model for Ex-ante evaluation of flood damage to residential building

The paper presents a new integrated model for the ex-ante evaluation of flood Expected Annual Damage (EAD) with specific reference to the direct damage to residential buildings. Starting from the analysis of an existing flood-damage model developed in other contexts, we propose an integrated evaluation model based on the definition of an analytic “stage damage curve” for different typology of residential buildings. The model is based on the integration of hydraulic model, combined with an ex-ante damage evaluation model, as a decision-support tool for sustainable risk management. Finally, combining hazard and vulnerability levels by using a GIS-based toolbox, the EAD to an urban area is obtained. The proposed model is then tested in a residential urban area of the municipality of Olbia in Italy, which was damaged by the extraordinary flood on November 2013. The comparison, between the ex-post assessed damage and the ex-ante evaluation based on the application of the model, enables to verify high reliability of the results obtained.