The present paper addresses the problem of the estimation of the day-ahead generated power (GP) of a photovoltaic plant using predicted regional solar radiation (SR). The contribution is twofold. First, it investigates the problems related to the design of day-ahead SR predictors and then studies their combination with the prediction data obtained from a meteorological service. Different setups of the time series model, the weather forecast service and their combinations using ensemble methods have been employed. Secondly, under a similar ensemble framework, the impact of the accuracy in the prediction of meteorological variables on the quality of the GP prediction is evaluated.

Ensemble methods for PV power production prediction

Dao, L. A.;Piroddi, L.;Ferrarini, L.
2017-01-01

Abstract

The present paper addresses the problem of the estimation of the day-ahead generated power (GP) of a photovoltaic plant using predicted regional solar radiation (SR). The contribution is twofold. First, it investigates the problems related to the design of day-ahead SR predictors and then studies their combination with the prediction data obtained from a meteorological service. Different setups of the time series model, the weather forecast service and their combinations using ensemble methods have been employed. Secondly, under a similar ensemble framework, the impact of the accuracy in the prediction of meteorological variables on the quality of the GP prediction is evaluated.
2017 6th International Conference on Clean Electrical Power: Renewable Energy Resources Impact, ICCEP 2017
9781509046829
Ensemble prediction methods; Generated power prediction; Renewable energy sources; Energy Engineering and Power Technology; Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11311/1038917
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