This paper presents the statistical characterization of the oxidation degradation mechanism affecting the nozzles of turbines operated in Oil and Gas utilities. The degradation mechanism is modeled as a four-state, continuous-time semi-Markov process with Weibull distributed transition times. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to infer the parameters of the model from an available set of field data, whereas a numerical approach to estimate the Fisher information matrix is used to characterize the uncertainty in the estimates. The estimates obtained are, then, utilized to compute the probabilities of occupying the four degradation states over time and the corresponding uncertainties. A case study is shown, dealing with real field data.

Semi-Markov Model for the Oxidation Degradation Mechanism in Gas Turbine Nozzles

COMPARE, MICHELE;ZIO, ENRICO
2016-01-01

Abstract

This paper presents the statistical characterization of the oxidation degradation mechanism affecting the nozzles of turbines operated in Oil and Gas utilities. The degradation mechanism is modeled as a four-state, continuous-time semi-Markov process with Weibull distributed transition times. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to infer the parameters of the model from an available set of field data, whereas a numerical approach to estimate the Fisher information matrix is used to characterize the uncertainty in the estimates. The estimates obtained are, then, utilized to compute the probabilities of occupying the four degradation states over time and the corresponding uncertainties. A case study is shown, dealing with real field data.
2016
degradation; Maximum likelihood estimation; Monte Carlo; Reliability engineering; Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality; Electrical and Electronic Engineering
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11311/1020658
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