Semi-probabilistic method for residual lifetime of aluminothermic welded rails with foot cracks

One of the most frequent and dangerous failure modes in continuous welded rails is fatigue crack propagation terminated by brittle fracture. Due to the brittleness of the weld material and HAZ and the scatter in its mechanical properties, a statistical approach is necessary. The paper deals with surface cracks at the foot base of aluminothermic welded rails, developing a probabilistic methodology for determining the day by day prospective failure probability. The investigations presented here comprise weld material characterization, simulation of fatigue crack propagation and finally the determination of the failure probability using the Monte Carlo method. The effect of various parameters, such as axle weight, initial crack size, residual stresses, fatigue crack propagation threshold and date of inspection were analyzed. The results show that, independent of the date of the last inspection, almost any failure event happens in wintertime. This is in accordance with practical experience. However, from the proposed analysis it is evident that the main parameter controlling rail fracture is not only the minimum local temperature, but the temperature range over the whole year. Finally, the results are compared to the standard rail classification method.