Optimal design of a styrene monomer plant under market volatility

The conventional definition of economic potentials (EPs) as proposed by Douglas (1988) considers the operative expenses (OPEX) of chemical plants to be independent of time. This paper shows how price variations, which inevitably influence OPEX terms, play a crucial role on the optimal design of chemical plants. The paper implements proper econometric models for raw materials, (by)products, and utilities to illustrate a distribution of possible future scenarios based on historical data, which is applied to a styrene monomer plant. Hence, the optimal plant design becomes a function of the forecast scenarios in accordance with the illustrated Predicted Conceptual Design (PCD) method.