Analysis of Critical Infrastructure Network Failure in the European Union: A Combined Systems Engineering and Economic Model

Over the past few years, the European Commission has placed Critical Infrastructure Protection under the spotlight. Therefore, the Joint Research Centre is developing a tool to estimate the economic impact of Critical Infrastructure (CI) network failure, resulting from a hazard, on the regional or national level. This tool, which is presented in this study, is a combined Systems Engineering and Dynamic Inoperability Input–output model (SE-DIIM). The resilience of infrastructures and economic sectors, in terms of their ability to withstand and recover from disruptions, is included in the model. We discuss the model by analyzing the economic losses incurred in the 2003 Italian electricity network outage. The losses are estimated at both national and regional levels i.e. northern, central and southern parts of Italy and Sicily with a focus on 9 CI’s. We estimate that the economic loss for the case study under consideration is between €46 million and €173 million. We conclude that the combination of the SE and the DIIM components provides a complete framework for assessing the economic impact of critical infrastructure network failure on the national or regional level taking account of resilience.